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In a world where the only constant is change, it can be hard to identify anchor points that help us understand and plan for potential futures. Zooming out from everyday challenges, there are some defining macrotrends that act like tidal waves on society — complex, inescapable forces that will together influence society’s needs, challenges and opportunities in the decades to come. This is an overview of the five global forces we see most consequential in affecting the future of society, humankind and mobility.
Accelerating Urbanisation
According to the UN, in 2050 the world will be home to just under 10 billion people, with almost 70% of them living in rapidly-growing urban areas. In 1950 that percentage was 30%.
On top of this, developing megacities are growing outwards faster than their populations are increasing. Lagos doubled in population between 1990 and 2010, but its surface area increased threefold.
An urbanised world is one of hope and development, but it also represents complex, uncertain challenges. How will we feed, house, employ, educate and move the swelling populations of our future cities? How will we overcome the urban challenges we already face today, such as congestion, air quality, inequality and access to resources? How will we ensure equal access to mobility — both physical, economic and social — in the sprawling metropolis of tomorrow?
Technological breakthroughs
The rate of technological change is increasing exponentially. Every day technologies are invented and business models are devised, often creating entirely new industries and rendering others obsolete in their wake.
A decade ago, smartphones didn’t exist. Now, according to the UN & World Bank, there are more connected mobile devices than humans in the world, and almost 3 billion people using smartphones globally. Our interconnectivity is growing by the minute, and with it the influence that technology has on our lives.
At the same time, we seem to be balancing on the cusp of a technological revolution in mobility. Feeling increased pressure from all angles, transportation providers are scrambling to be leaders in the departure from private, fossil-fuel-driven mobility. Indeed, one of the most crucial questions of our era is how we can successfully integrate advanced, tech-driven mobility with the mass-transit technologies we rely on.
Climate Crisis
In 2015 the UN predicted that by 2030, the world will need 50% more energy, 40% more clean water and 35% more food. In the transport section alone, emissions are projected to increase 35% by 2030, and almost double by 2050.
Each year we consume and emit more, even as the world’s climate scientists tell us that to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Climate Accord — and mitigate the most destructive effects of climate change — we’ll need to cut our use of fossil fuels in half by 2030 and eliminate them altogether by mid-century.
But regardless of how quickly we can adapt, our endangered ecology is already triggering devastating natural disasters, critical resource scarcity, widespread human displacement and strong incentives for corporations to change their ways of existing.
Demographic Shifts
In 2018, for the first time in human history, the UN reported that persons aged 65 years or over outnumbered children under five years of age worldwide. At the same time, 50% of India’s billion-plus population were under the age of 25, and 65% were under the age of 35.
Though many of the largest developing nations will remain younger and less privileged than the developed world, the UN predicts that the age structures of virtually all populations will become older by 2050.
This duality of older, slowly-expanding populations and younger, fast-growing populations introduces equal challenges regarding how people will be fed, housed, educated, moved and kept integrated within society.
Political and economic shifts
In September 2019 the Global Climate Strikes hosted over 2,500 organised marches throughout 163 countries in what was reported as the largest climate protest in history. Just one month earlier, 181 of America’s top CEOs released a joint statement declaring that shareholder returns would no longer be the sole focus of corporate activity.
Meanwhile, economic and political power is shifting from the established global west to the emerging global east, with the combined GDP of the seven largest emerging economies overtaking that of the seven largest established economies in 2014.
Driven by changing generational attitudes, geopolitical relations, technological empowerment and the growing global middle class, all over the world the values underpinning business, public policy and social systems are shifting and expected to subvert traditional power structures.